Dr. Florian Rabitz is chief researcher in the Research Group Civil Society and Sustainability at KTU Faculty of Social Sciences, Arts and Humanities.
Global warming is escalating at a remarkable pace. In the Paris climate agreement, the international community had agreed to pursue efforts at limiting global temperature increases to 1.5℃ until the end of the century, relative to pre-industrial levels. What should have happened no earlier than the year 2100 has possibly already happened this year, as scientists debate whether the world has already breached the 1.5℃ target. While the world struggles to get its greenhouse gas emissions under control, a potentially dangerous set of technological interventions are increasingly being considered for large-scale interference with the climate system.
These technologies, typically referred to as Solar Geoengineering or Solar Radiation Modification, would act on planetary albedo: by blocking a small fraction of sunlight from reaching the planetary surface, they offer the possibility of getting temperature increases under control, even in the absence of the rapid
and comprehensive decarbonization of the world economy that would otherwise be required. One form of Solar Geoengineering presently under discussion is artificial cloud formation. Another revolves around the injection of aerosol precursors into the stratosphere, possibly via high-altitude jets, for creating a wall of reflective particles that would redirect sunlight away from Earth.
Experiments show that these approaches would likely work in getting temperatures under control. Technological development is proceeding rapidly, and commercial
interest is increasing. The risks associated with Solar Geoengineering are immense. They include potential global environmental impacts on biological diversity, the hydrologic cycle, food systems, species migration patterns, or the ozone layer. There are also political risks, notably that deployment of Solar Geoengineering technology would weaken efforts to eliminate the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that are the cause of the worsening climate crisis. Solar Geoengineering also has the potential to create novel political conflicts and geopolitical rivalries.
In 2023, the European Commission asked its Scientific Advisory Mechanism to procure a study on the governance implications of Solar Geoengineering, to which KTU chief researcher Florian Rabitz has contributed. The study highlights numerous uncertainties and risks associated with the potential use of Solar Geoengineering, and elaborates various political options for its regulation. Based on this study, available from here https://scientificadvice.eu/advice/solar-radiation-modification/ , the Group of Chief Scientific Advisors recommends for the European Commission to install a Europe-wide moratorium on the deployment of Solar Geoengineering technology, as well as on large-scale outdoor experiments. The Group also recommends that the Commission should work towards the establishment of similar arrangements at the international level.
These results come at a time when we are seeing escalating political and economic interest in the development of these high-risk technologies, and as efforts at their international control are increasingly facing pushback from petrostates that, presumably, consider Solar Geoengineering as a way of extending the extraction and sale of oil and natural gas further into the future than would otherwise be possible. The global politics of climate change are challenging enough as it is. Adding high-powered technological interventions with significant environmental and political risks into the mix is not going to make it any easier. At this point in time, a European and international ban of Solar Geoengineering technology thus seems to be the most prudent choice.
